Glimpses of optimism and opportunity peeked through a curtain of the now-typical bad news for the apple industry as a record 370 attended the annual USApple Outlook conference Aug. 14 in Chicago.

Rising demand for some processed apple products, lower volumes from international export competitors and some regulatory changes that favor specialty crop employers were among the positives.

“It’s not all gloom and doom,” said Tom Barnes, CEO of Category Partners, an industry data analytics firm that specializes in fresh produce.

The annual gathering brings producers, wholesalers, retailers and industry officials to the Ritz-Carlton Hotel to discuss trends and prognostications for the upcoming apple season.

One surprising area of growth is dried apple snacks, the only apple product in stores that increased in volume distribution over the past five years, despite a 30 percent increase in price. It’s a small category, Barnes cautioned.

Even fresh apples, coming in at a near-record volume this year, have a silver lining. Distribution volume is actually up, which Barnes attributes to curiosity about new varieties.

Politics showed a few brights spots, too, said Diane Kurrle, senior vice president of USApple.

Specialty crops scored some wins when U.S. Congress passed Donald Trump’s domestic spending policy act, nicknamed the Big Beautiful Bill.

The legislation made permanent some tax breaks, including estate taxes, and increased funding for the Market Access Program and research, and made improvements to tree and crop insurance. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Labor now includes high-level staffers familiar with the importance and complexity of the H-2A temporary agricultural worker program. Earlier in the summer, the department announced it would cease enforcing President Biden’s contentious Farmworker Protection Rule.

“Under this administration, I think we actually have the opportunity to have regulations be our friend,” Kurrle said.

Chris Gerlach, vice president of insights and analytics for USApple, said competitors in global trade, such as Türkiye, have smaller crops, which could give U.S. shippers an opening for export countries such as India.

However, speakers didn’t sugarcoat some of the stark facts the industry faces: a near-record apple volume, declining consumer interest and costs of production often higher than profits. When Gerlach polled the audience to ask how long it will take for current market conditions to improve, answers averaged at four years. 

“This is not a sustainable environment,” he said.

Crop estimate

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates the nation’s apple crop at 290 million 42-pound bushels, which includes fresh and processed fruit.

Overall, producers at USApple predicted a slightly smaller volume of 278.5 million 42-pound bushels, which would be a 1.3 percent increase over last year. The figure includes both fresh and processed apples.

Washington leads the charge with a near-record crop estimate of at least 180 million bushels. New York calls for 30.5 million bushels, followed by Michigan at 30 million and Pennsylvania at 10.5 million. A frost event will push Virginia’s crop down to 2.75 million bushes, about half of last year’s harvest volume. Oregon’s crop is estimated at 3.9 million bushels, a 40 percent increase. 

Producers and industry officials cautioned that not all those apples will reach the warehouse. Packers likely will encourage growers to leave some fruit on the trees as an economic decision, especially in Washington. •